Pink's Bottom Line on Media, Money and Sports

Pay-tv subscribers, college students and James Harden

I hope everyone had a great weekend. Here’s our first ever Sunday night edition.

MEDIA: Live Sports Driving Pay-TV Subs?

In a world of skinny bundles and a thinning number of pay-tv subscribers, FuboTV looks to feast on viewers’ hunger for live sports.

For those unfamiliar with FuboTV, it’s an over-the-top (OTT) or streaming alternative to a traditional cable or satellite subscription package, and Fubo places a heavy emphasis on live sports programming to generate subscriptions.

Fubo says it expects its subscriber base to grow to between 340,000 and 350,000 by the end of this quarter, up from about 286,000, at the end of the second quarter. That’s about a 20% growth rate.

Fubo’s most recent quarterly numbers, though, were essentially flat in terms of subscribers. Fubo’s subscriber base appears to have declined by roughly 1000 subs between the end of the first quarter of the year compared to the end of the second.

Meanwhile, the Leichtman Research Group says the biggest pay-tv providers in the US suffered another quarter of subscriber losses, losing more than 1.5 million subs or 1.9% from the end of the first quarter to the end of the second.

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Fubo seems optimistic at a time when many other pay-tv operators, particularly the larger cable and satellite companies, are losing subscribers. Fubo, though, still isn’t profitable, and its third quarter numbers are projections only.

If live sports is indeed the catalyst that keeps people signing up for multichannel linear tv bundles, then keep a close eye on Fubo’s performance. I think we’ll know at lot more when the company reports subscriber and earnings numbers for the third quarter.

MONEY: Mind the Gap

The next couple of weeks will see the return of many college students back to campuses — at least for now. However, there won’t be as many students making those traditional treks back to their schools. Many colleges and universities are offering online classes only, and many students are deciding to defer for a year and attend college next fall instead.

So, what does it mean financially long term if a student decides to wait a year — traditionally a gap year — to attend college?

According to a study by the New York Fed, the average annual rate of return of attending college is 14% over a lifetime — that’s a very good investment. However, that rate of return falls to 13% annually if a student decides to take a gap year. The study estimates that taking that gap year costs $90,000 over a student’s lifetime.

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In a typical year, estimates are that 3% of students take a gap year. This year’s percentage will undoubtedly be much higher.

But, as we all know, it’s anything but an typical year for the college student. Those students who currently plan to defer for a year are doing so for a host of different reasons: concerns for health and safety, a limited in-person experience, financial hardship and more.

While taking a gap year might prove costly from a financial perspective, it will definitely have other intangible benefits that might prove even more valuable. Let’s check in on the 2020 gradating class again in 2024 (and 2025).

SPORTS: Harden Time

The Houston Rockets’ James Harden became the NBA scoring champion for the third consecutive season, averaging 34.3 points per game this year. At age 30, Harden is the oldest player to win the scoring title since some guy named Michael Jordan won it for the Chicago Bulls at age 34 in the 1997-1998 season.

Harden’s age could emerge as a factor in the postseason. That’s because Houston will face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the NBA playoffs beginning Tuesday night. Harden is shouldering a heavier burden than usual, as his all-star teammate Russell Westbrook is out due to injury for the beginning of the series.

Pink's Bottom Line

At age 30, Harden must carry his team as the playoffs, and I think he will do just fine.

Harden’s Rockets won’t face the team that’s been their nemesis, the Golden State Warriors, this year in the playoffs — the Warriors have eliminated Houston from title contention four of the past five seasons.

Plus, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Los Angeles Lakers are the favorites to win the Western Conference, and Houston remains somewhat of an afterthought as a potential title contender.

With lowered expectations for the Rockets because of Westbrook’s absence, with no Warriors series on the horizon and with the focus on the Los Angeles teams, I think Harden just might quietly enjoy the best playoff run of his career at the ripe age of 30.

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Jeremy Pink is former CEO of Broadcast Sports International and a former CNBC executive in New York, London and Singapore. He currently serves as an advisor to companies in media, sports and financial tech.

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