Pink's Bottom Line on Media, Money and Sports
Global ad spending, the US economy and NBA MVP favorites
In today’s newsletter, I discuss the latest global ad spending forecast, an optimistic projection for US economic growth and the current NBA MVP favorites.
MEDIA: Global Ad Spending Forecast
Dentsu, the global advertising and public relations firm, is the latest company to give its outlook for ad spending in 2021.
Dentsu says it expects ad spending globally to increase 5.8% this year, and says the global ad market won’t fully recover from the 8.8% decline in spending last year.
Latin American and Western European markets will each see strong rebounds in ad spending in 2021, following double digit declines for both regions in 2020, according to Dentsu.
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Dentsu also sees digital advertising leading the way with the most robust increase in global ad spend, well ahead of a modest increase for traditional television.
Notably, Dentsu forecasts global ad spending to surge more than 18% on social media, and to increase around 11% for both search and video.
As such, advertisers globally now appear to be fully embracing ad spending on digital, and that trend only looks likely to gain even more traction.
MONEY: US Economy
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a non-partisan government agency, has what appears to be an optimistic forecast for the US economy for this year despite the backdrop of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
In its just released publication An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, the CBO says that it expects the US real GDP to increase 3.7% in 2021.
Additionally, by the middle of this year, it expects US economic output to return to the heights it reached before the pandemic started.
However, the CBO does not expect employment to return to its pre-pandemic level until 2024.
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The new CBO publication could also have some impact on fiscal stimulus talks that are underway right now in Washington.
That’s because the new report considers only the stimulus packages that have been approved, but not any additional ones that might be enacted.
If the CBO projections are correct and if a new fiscal stimulus package is approved — whatever its size — that could boost the economy beyond the CBO’s projected 3.7% growth.
SPORTS: NBA MVP Odds
With more than a quarter of the NBA’s regular season now complete for most teams, Lebron James of the Los Angeles Lakers has emerged as the favorite to win league MVP.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, James is +350 to win the MVP with Denver’s Nikola Jokic second at +440 and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid third at +550.
(Note: James at +350 to win the MVP means that if a bettor wagers $100 on James and James does win the MVP, that bettor wins $350.)
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While it’s hardly surprising to see James as the favorite as he’s been consistently the best player in the league for many years, it is a bit unusual to see two centers — two big men — rank so highly in the MVP race.
In the past five to ten years, the league has shifted to a greater emphasis on the three-point shot and to smaller players in general from a focus on the inside game, the traditional domain of a center.
However, both Embiid and Jokic display a wide range of skills — both players can handle the ball well and both can shoot three-pointers. Jokic also is one of the top passers in the league.
As such, I expect to see more centers with this wider array of skills to become the norm in the NBA in the next five to ten years.
Jeremy Pink is currently COO of Geniecast, a leading virtual content and experience company. He is the former CEO of private-equity backed Broadcast Sports International where he helped lead the company to a successful sale and exit during his tenure there. He is also a former CNBC television executive in New York, London and Singapore.
The information contained in this communication is strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes and is not meant to be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. This communication is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I am not a financial advisor or offering professional advice of any kind. Users should not act upon the content or information found within this communication without first seeking professional advice appropriate for their individual situation. Decisions based on information contained in this communication are the sole responsibility of the user, and use of this communication and its contents constitutes an explicit understanding and acceptance of the foregoing disclaimers.
(Newsletter Editor: Karina Pink)