Pink's Bottom Line on Media, Money and Sports

Pay-TV subscribers, Thanksgiving weekend shopping and the College Football Playoff

In today’s newsletter, I discuss pay-television subscribers, Thanksgiving weekend shopping and the College Football Playoff.

MEDIA: Pay-Television Subscribers

The nation’s biggest cable, satellite and Internet based pay-television providers lost more subscribers last quarter than in the third quarter of last year, according to data from the Leichtman Research.

Those pay-tv providers lost 650,000 net video subscribers in the third quarter compared with a net loss of 90,000 in the third quarter of 2020.

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For the last year, the biggest pay-tv providers have suffered a net loss of 5.1 million subscribers — that compares to a 4.8 million net loss in subscribers from the prior year.

Not surprisingly, these latest numbers from Leichtman indicate that traditional, linear pay-tv currently continues to lose subscribers, a very different picture from video streaming services, which have been adding subscribers at a rapid clip.

MONEY: Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping

More people will shop during this year’s Thanksgiving weekend than last year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The NRF estimates that more than 158.3 million consumers will shop between Thursday and Monday of this week — that compares to 156.6 million last year.

However, fewer consumers will shop less this year than in 2019 when 165.3 million shopped during Thanksgiving weekend.

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Notably, among those shopping on Black Friday itself, 64% plan to do so in person, up from 51% a year ago.

That suggests that consumers are more comfortable shopping in person this year despite the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

For the entire holiday shopping season that includes Thanksgiving weekend, the NRF forecasts that total sales will reach a record level and grow between 8.5% and 10.5% this season compared to last year.

SPORTS: College Football Playoff

While the College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee ultimately will choose the top four teams to play for the national title this year, the country’s sportsbooks indicate that only three teams actually have a strong chance to win it all this year.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, for example, Georgia is currently -125 to win the national title, Ohio State is +300 and Alabama is +400.

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After those three, the teams with the next best chance to win the national title are Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, both at +4000.

If the sportsbooks are correct, that means that the top seed in the CFP will be crucial assuming Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State are all selected.

That’s because the top seed — currently Georgia — would play a team like Cincinnati in one semifinal while the second semifinal could be between Ohio State and Alabama.

As such, the path to the national title will be considerably more difficult for the second and third seeds than the top seed — that’s assuming, of course, that Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama all earn berths in the CFP, which is hardly a certainty.

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Jeremy Pink is currently an advisor to media and fintech companies around the world. He is the former CEO of private-equity backed Broadcast Sports International where he helped lead the company to a successful sale and exit during his tenure there. He is also a former CNBC television executive in New York, London and Singapore.

The information contained in this communication is strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes and is not meant to be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. This communication is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I am not a financial advisor or offering professional advice of any kind. Users should not act upon the content or information found within this communication without first seeking professional advice appropriate for their individual situation. Decisions based on information contained in this communication are the sole responsibility of the user, and use of this communication and its contents constitutes an explicit understanding and acceptance of the foregoing disclaimers.

(Newsletter Editor: Karina Pink)