Pink's Bottom Line on Media, Money and Sports

Local meda ads, investor sentiment and golf scores

I had a dentist appointment today followed by a Zoom meeting. Fortunately, neither was painful in any way. Speaking of pain, I’m looking at local media struggles again in today’s newsletter.

MEDIA: Local Media Ad Spend Under Pressure

Local ad sales are declining in nearly all types of traditional media, according to data from BIA Advisory Services. While political ad spend is growing, it’s not enough to mitigate the negative impact from the coronavirus on overall local ad spend, according to BIA.

Notably, BIA expects local ad spend on traditional over-the-air radio to decline 14.5% in 2020 compared to 2019, and it expects ad spend on newspapers (print only) to fall by 17.2% this year compared to last.

Pink’s Bottom Line

Traditional media, like AM/FM radio and newspapers, have been struggling for many years as a wave of new digital media options have emerged. The negative impact from the coronavirus has only accelerated this trend.

Political ad spend in local media is helping traditional radio and newspapers in the short term, but post the November general election, we’ll learn a lot more about their futures.

MONEY: Investor Sentiment

As key stock market indices hover around record levels, some investors are becoming more bullish, but many more remain pessimistic, according to the latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey.

That survey shows that 42.4% of respondents are bearish, up from 42.1% a week earlier. Bullish sentiment now stands at 30.4%, up from 30% the prior week. (In this survey bearish means investors expect stock prices to decline over the next six months, while bullish means that investors expect stock prices to increase over the same time period.)

Pink’s Bottom Line

Some investment professionals use the AAII survey as a contra-indicator. In other words, if bullish expectations are soaring in the survey, then some pros say that could presage a decline in stock prices. If more investors are bearish, these same pros would expect the market to move higher.

While the current AAII survey tilts bearish, there isn’t that wide of a divergence between bullish and bearish sentiment at the moment.

I’ll be watching to see if strong bullish or bearish sentiment emerges in this survey in the coming weeks. That will be a good indicator — possibly a contra-indicator — of where the market is heading.

SPORTS: Golf Scores

For only the 12th time in more than 90-year history of the PGA Tour, a golfer shot a single round score lower than 60 when PGA rookie Scott Scheffler carded a second round 59 Friday at the Northern Trust tournament outside of Boston.

Scheffler became the second youngest player ever to break the magical 60 mark in a single round of golf on the PGA Tour. (Interesting note: nine of those 12 rounds below 60 have occurred since 2010.)

Pink's Bottom Line

Scheffler, 24, joins a group of outstanding, young golfers who have burst on the scene in the last year or so. Other promising young golfers include: Collin Morikawa, 23, who won the PGA Championship earlier this month, and Matthew Wolff, who won a PGA Tour event at age 20 in July last year.

Add more established, yet still very young, players like Bryson DeChambeau, 26, and Justin Thomas, 27, to the mix, and professional golf looks like it’s in a position to thrive for many years to come.

---

Jeremy Pink is former CEO of Broadcast Sports International and a former CNBC executive in New York, London and Singapore. He currently serves as an advisor to companies in media, sports and financial tech.

The information contained in this communication is strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes and is not meant to be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. This communication is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I am not a financial advisor or offering professional advice of any kind. Users should not act upon the content or information found within this communication without first seeking professional advice appropriate for their individual situation. Decisions based on information contained in this communication are the sole responsibility of the user, and use of this communication and its contents constitutes an explicit understanding and acceptance of the foregoing disclaimers.