Pink's Bottom Line on Media, Money and Sports
NFL ratings, the American consumer and sports feuds
As we enter week two of this newsletter, I’m making a couple of schedule changes, thanks to the suggestions of many readers. Beginning next week, I'll release a new newsletter Sunday through Thursday nights at 9pm ET instead of Monday through Friday. On Friday nights, I’ll publish recaps of top items of the week. I think the changes will serve everyone better. Now, here’s today’s edition chock full of good stuff including a Bay City Rollers reference.
Media: S-a-t-u-r-d-a-y Night
Perhaps the biggest media story today is the potential postponement or cancellation of the college football season this fall. College football, while not the ratings juggernaut that is the NFL (a lot more on that in a moment), nonetheless accounted for two of the top 50 most watched broadcasts in the US in 2019, according to Nielsen data. Importantly, the top college football broadcast each week drew anywhere from six million to upwards of 13 million viewers on any given Saturday. Considering that the average primetime audience on a given night across all networks in the US totaled about six million viewers in 2019, college football still is a major ratings grabber. The networks need a strong replacement for it.
So, if college football does indeed go away this fall, what will step in to take its place on television? Enter the NFL. The NFL is a ratings juggernaut - NFL programming represented an astonishing 41 of the top 50 most viewed broadcasts on television last year. For some context about the league’s strength on television, an NFL week two game between between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams drew more viewers than Game 7 of the World Series and The Grammys telecast.
Pink's Bottom Line
The major broadcast networks will have primetime programming holes to fill on Saturdays with the absence of college football. The NFL, assuming it plays its season, can move games to those primetime windows — ESPN’s Adam Schefter has a great take on everything here. (Note: There is a regulatory issue to sort out if the NFL wants to broadcast games on Saturday nights this fall, but that issue appears surmountable.)
In any case, in January, when we’re analyzing the highest rated broadcasts for all of 2020, look for the NFL to become even more dominant. Also, it will be interesting to see what impact, if any, additional NFL games on Saturdays will have in future rights negotiations between the league and the broadcasters. Most NFL rights expire at the end of the 2021 season.
(Not sure why I spelled out the word “Saturday” in the above headline? I’d like to introduce you to this Bay City Rollers classic from 1974.)
Money: Consumer Reports
Two key economic reports that will shed light on the state of the American consumer come out later this week - the consumer price report on Wednesday and retail sales numbers on Friday.
Here’s why those reports are critical. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US economic output, which means spending is the true engine of the economy. If people don’t have money to spend, the US economy suffers greatly.
The consumer price report shows how much items cost in a given month - was it more expensive or less expensive to buy things? Generally, the best news is a modest increase in prices on a monthly basis.
As for the retail sales report, that looks more at the direct state of the consumer. Were people buying more or less goods in July than in the previous month? What were they buying?
Pink's Bottom Line
Consumer prices should rise modestly, but keep an eye on food prices. If those are surging or are even higher than expectations, then I fear for the average American consumer for the rest of 2020.
As for retail sales, those should meet or exceed expectations in July, but if they show any signs of slowing, then watch out for August’s numbers in next month’s report. Weak July numbers could potentially lead to a sharp decline in August as the impact from government stimulus goes away.
Either way - the state of the American consumer in July will give us a great indication just how strong the US economy will be for the rest of the year.
Sports: Pointed Comments
Over the past number of years, sports have become more genteel. Many opposing players are friends off the court, and they rarely call one another out either publicly or on social media.
But, this weekend, two different conflicts emerged publicly - one among NBA players and one among golfers.
In the NBA, Los Angeles Clippers guard Patrick Beverley called out Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard after Lillard mised two free throws at the end of a game between the two teams. (You can read a good summary of their disagreement, which also involves the Clippers Paul George, here.)
In golf, after the third round of the PGA Championship, two-time defending champion Brooks Koepka called out one of his fellow players on the leaderboard. Koepka, who trailed leader Dustin Johnson by two strokes after the third round, said he wasn’t particularly worried about Johnson. (Here’s an excellent story on the conflict and its aftermath from ESPN’s Ian O’Connor.)
Pink's Bottom Line
Let's see more of these spats. As the world of sports becomes more sanitized, sterilized and corporatized, it’s refreshing to see candor among competitors.
Imagine the next time Koepka and Johnson are paired together in a tournament. How about the next game between the Clippers and the Trail Blazers? Television ratings should increase for each event, and viewers will clamor to see what happens next.
I know I’ll be watching.
Jeremy Pink is former CEO of Broadcast Sports International and a former CNBC executive in New York, London and Singapore. He currently serves as an advisor to companies in the media, sports and financial tech sectors.
The information contained in this communication is strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes and is not meant to be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. This communication is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I am not a financial advisor or offering professional advice of any kind. Users should not act upon the content or information found within this communication without first seeking professional advice appropriate for their individual situation. Decisions based on information contained in this communication are the sole responsibility of the user, and use of this communication and its contents constitutes an explicit understanding and acceptance of the foregoing disclaimers.