Pink's Bottom Line on Media, Money and Sports

Pay-television subscriber projections, consumer confidence and the College Football Playoff

In today’s newsletter, I discuss pay-television subscriber projections, consumer confidence and the College Football Playoff.

MEDIA: Pay-Television Subscriber Projections

MoffettNathanson Research, a widely followed independent research firm, is forecasting a sharp decline in pay-television subscribers by 2024 as reported in a story by the publication Broadcasting+Cable.

According to reporting in that story, MoffettNathanson projects the number of pay-tv subscribers to fall from 83 million by the end of the year to 73.2 million by 2024 — that’s roughly a 12% decline.

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Additionally, according to reporting from that story, MoffettNathanson estimates that the number of pay-tv subscribers considered sports viewers has actually increased in the past couple of years even as the total number of pay-tv subscribers has shrunk.

That shows the power and importance of sports to the future health of the pay-tv industry.

However, if major live sports eventually do move from traditional pay-tv to streaming platforms in the coming years, it would have a major negative impact on the entire pay-tv ecosystem.

MONEY: Consumer Confidence

Consumers were less confident in November than they were in October, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released earlier today.

That index now stands at a level of 109.5 compared to 111.6 in October — a reading of 100 indicates an average level of confidence among consumers.

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As such, although the November reading was lower than October, consumers still had an above average level of confidence last month.

If that confidence level, though, drops consistently in the coming months, that could be a precursor for an eventual decline in consumer spending.

SPORTS: College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee released its rankings earlier tonight, and Georgia once again ranked number one.

The top four ranked teams by that Committee at the end of the season will play for the national title.

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Michigan ranked second, followed by Alabama and Cincinnati at third and fourth, respectively — should two of those three teams lose, Notre Dame, ranked sixth, could be in position to move in to the top four in the rankings and play for the national title.

That’s notable because Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is taking the head coaching job at LSU, which means he won’t coach the Irish if they do make the CFP.

Regardless, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, Georgia remains the overwhelming favorite to win the national title at -250, and that won’t change no matter the other three teams that eventually make the CFP.

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Jeremy Pink is currently an advisor to media and fintech companies around the world. He is the former CEO of private-equity backed Broadcast Sports International where he helped lead the company to a successful sale and exit during his tenure there. He is also a former CNBC television executive in New York, London and Singapore.

The information contained in this communication is strictly for general informational and entertainment purposes and is not meant to be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. This communication is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I am not a financial advisor or offering professional advice of any kind. Users should not act upon the content or information found within this communication without first seeking professional advice appropriate for their individual situation. Decisions based on information contained in this communication are the sole responsibility of the user, and use of this communication and its contents constitutes an explicit understanding and acceptance of the foregoing disclaimers.

(Newsletter Editor: Karina Pink)